ITGA forum puts 2026 global tobacco crop down 5% and Oriental output at 138 million kilograms

The International Tobacco Growers’ Association (ITGA) estimates global tobacco production will fall about 5% in 2026, with a further decline projected for 2027, figures presented at an Oriental Tobacco Forum in Prilep, North Macedonia, on 27 October show.

The ITGA and North Macedonia’s Union of Tobacco Producers organised the meeting, which gathered growers, researchers and industry representatives to discuss leaf markets, production trends and regulation. The production estimates came from that forum.

Worldwide Oriental output is estimated at 138 million kilograms for 2026

The ITGA puts global Oriental tobacco production at 138 million kilograms in 2026. Oriental tobacco is a group of small-leaf, aromatic varieties grown mainly in the eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans and used largely in blended cigarettes.

The 5% worldwide decline follows what the forecasts describe as a strong 2025 crop.

North Macedonia’s 2026 forecast is 30.8 million kilograms

Forecasts presented at the forum put North Macedonia’s 2026 crop at 30.8 million kilograms, 17.5% above 2025. The country has roughly 15,000 tobacco growers, produces 25 million kilograms a year and exports more than $200 million of tobacco annually.

The report presents the 25 million kilogram figure as annual output and the 30.8 million kilogram figure as a 2026 forecast without reconciling the two. It does not say whether the annual figure is an average, a 2025 result or a different measure.

Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey move in different directions

Bulgarian Oriental production is forecast at 4.9 million kilograms, up 43.2%. Greek production fell to 10.52 million kilograms in 2025 from 12.27 million kilograms in 2024.

Turkish tobacco purchases reached approximately 68 million kilograms by the end of August 2026, against 48 million kilograms a year earlier.

Regulatory sessions covered EU directives and the WHO treaty

Sessions addressed proposed revisions to EU tobacco product and advertising directives, tobacco excise taxation and developments under the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. ITGA representatives set out how those tracks affect growers and rural economies.

The report describes the EU directive revisions as proposed. It does not state that any revised text has been adopted or has entered into force.

Growers and buyers carry the forecast shifts

Growers and producer unions in Balkan and eastern Mediterranean countries face the forecast changes, including the roughly 15,000 North Macedonian growers named in the report. Buyers sourcing Oriental leaf face a smaller global crop in 2026 on the ITGA estimate.

The next date the report names is the treaty’s 12th Conference of the Parties, scheduled for 2027 in Yerevan, Armenia.

The report leaves the percentage bases unstated

The report gives no 2025 base figure behind North Macedonia’s 17.5% rise and no base for Bulgaria’s 43.2% increase. It also does not reconcile North Macedonia’s 30.8 million kilogram forecast with its 25 million kilogram annual output figure.

Analysts tracking Oriental supply would need the underlying crop reports to close those gaps.

Questions readers ask

How much is global tobacco production expected to fall in 2026?

The International Tobacco Growers' Association estimates global tobacco production will decline about 5% in 2026, following a strong 2025 crop. The association projected a further decrease for 2027. The figures were presented at the Oriental Tobacco Forum held on 27 October in Prilep, North Macedonia.

What is North Macedonia's forecast tobacco crop for 2026?

Forecasts presented at the ITGA forum put North Macedonia's 2026 crop at 30.8 million kilograms, up 17.5% from 2025. The country has roughly 15,000 tobacco growers and exports more than $200 million of tobacco annually. The report does not reconcile the forecast with its separate figure of 25 million kilograms of annual output.

How much Oriental tobacco is forecast for 2026?

Global Oriental tobacco production is estimated at 138 million kilograms in 2026. Within that total, Bulgaria's Oriental crop is forecast at 4.9 million kilograms, up 43.2%, while Greek production fell to 10.52 million kilograms in 2025 from 12.27 million in 2024. Turkey purchased about 68 million kilograms by end-August 2026.

What regulation did the forum discuss?

The forum covered proposed revisions to EU tobacco product and advertising directives, tobacco excise taxation and developments under the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. ITGA representatives discussed effects on growers and rural economies ahead of the treaty's 12th Conference of the Parties, scheduled for 2027 in Yerevan, Armenia.