On-product warnings cut nicotine product appeal in Canadian study
A McMaster University choice experiment with 2,961 Canadians found warnings printed on e-cigarette, heated tobacco and cigarette packs raised the share choosing no product from 50% to 65% among nonusers.
Key points
- Warnings on all three product categories raised the predicted share of nonusers choosing no product from 50% to 65% and of current users from 10% to 18%.
- A 40% increase in vape prices cut current users' predicted pod preference from 55% to 48% and increased preference for heated tobacco and cigarettes.
- Higher cigarette prices did not increase predicted preference for vaping.
- Lower nicotine concentrations, 1.5% rather than 5%, increased pod appeal among nonusers and users who do not smoke.
Printing health warnings on the product itself changed simulated choices more than price, nicotine level or plain packaging, according to a McMaster University study of 2,961 Canadians published in the Canadian Journal of Public Health.
The result matters for pack design and for how regulators weigh on-pack messaging against tax rises: a 40% vape price increase pushed some current users toward cigarettes in the same experiment, while warnings did not.
Warnings pushed the “none” share up among nonusers and current users
In the least restrictive scenario, the predicted probability that a nonuser aged 16-29 would pick no product was 50%. Adding warnings to all three categories — JUUL pods, IQOS heated tobacco sticks and du Maurier cigarettes — raised that to 65%, according to the study.
Among current e-cigarette users the same change lifted the predicted probability of choosing nothing from 10% to 18%. The researchers reported that the effect came mainly from warnings on vape pods, and that vape warnings did not raise predicted preference for cigarettes.
The online discrete choice experiment asked 1,839 e-cigarette nonusers and 1,122 current users to choose among the three products or none, varying warnings, price, nicotine concentration in pods and packaging. UA.News, summarising the findings, reports participants were drawn from Alberta, Ontario and Quebec.
A 40% vape price rise moved users toward heated tobacco and cigarettes
Raising vape prices by 40% cut current users’ predicted preference for pods from 55% to 48%, the study found. The same price change increased predicted preference for heated tobacco and cigarettes.
A higher cigarette price did not increase predicted preference for vaping, including among respondents who both smoke and vape.
| Scenario | Nonusers choosing no product | Current users choosing no product |
|---|---|---|
| Least restrictive | 50% | 10% |
| Warnings on all three categories | 65% | 18% |
UA.News gives the warning effect at product level: warnings on vapes alone lowered the predicted probability of choosing pods by seven percentage points among nonusers and three points among users, and warnings across all three categories lowered it by 12 and five points respectively.
Lower nicotine drew nonusers to pods; plain packaging barely registered
Pods at 1.5% nicotine were preferred to 5% by nonusers and by users who do not smoke, according to UA.News. Neutral packaging changed product preferences little in the experiment.
The authors cautioned that the experiment recorded stated intentions in hypothetical situations rather than real purchases, so the results may not reflect actual consumption.
Retailers and pack designers face a different lever than tax
The findings put on-product warning layout alongside excise policy as a variable that shifts category mix, not just overall demand. In this experiment, warnings suppressed pods without redirecting nonusers toward cigarettes, while a vape price rise shifted current users toward heated tobacco and cigarettes.
The study does not test a real policy change, so it cannot establish how shoppers would respond to specific warning designs or to a tax change of this size. Nothing in the material indicates any Canadian warning, packaging or tax rule has been proposed, passed or scheduled as a result.
Because choices were hypothetical, the 40% price shift — and the cross-category movement it produced — remains a stated-preference estimate, not observed retail behaviour.
Questions readers ask
Did the study measure real purchases?
No. The researchers used an online discrete choice experiment with hypothetical choices and cautioned that the results may not reflect real-world consumption.
Sources
18+ only. This site is for adult readers and provides news and information only. It is not medical, legal or purchase advice. Nicotine is addictive. Always check the official text of any regulation in your market. Health Information
